Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.959378 11.686801 13.574247 15.783048 18.290089 21.040153 24.277756
2025-02-02 7.434787 9.821319 12.689434 16.358454 20.892380 26.274476 33.105992
2025-02-09 5.843205 8.549367 12.074953 16.928120 23.347658 31.452156 42.346250
2025-02-16 4.559730 7.322091 11.190749 16.868610 24.828309 35.408025 50.314242
2025-02-23 3.535687 6.199627 10.190190 16.398784 25.565343 38.310855 57.011576
2025-03-02 2.732575 5.217847 9.187952 15.711197 25.811541 40.438932 62.690135
2025-03-09 2.241898 4.626989 8.663739 15.623638 26.854012 43.693895 70.104229
2025-03-16 1.823013 4.064440 8.079000 15.328959 27.493935 46.338990 76.740538
2025-03-23 1.645765 3.910767 8.159197 16.122315 29.904267 51.805667 87.920606
2025-03-30 1.414929 3.599031 7.900177 16.280214 31.252823 55.671771 96.838553
2025-04-06 1.208253 3.290574 7.594106 16.301920 32.345643 59.168501 105.346299
2025-04-13 1.030108 3.003614 7.281315 16.261355 33.302958 62.475420 113.704319
2025-04-20 0.978583 3.012581 7.589749 17.477100 36.671794 70.127504 129.767685
2025-04-27 0.894502 2.923717 7.680767 18.278692 39.358958 76.810860 144.642469
2025-05-04 0.811071 2.816741 7.715090 18.966081 41.884765 83.367798 159.662154
2025-05-11 0.692652 2.581871 7.418771 18.921509 42.990536 87.472018 170.688426
2025-05-18 0.568036 2.291074 6.937243 18.410410 43.118262 89.801615 178.724302
2025-05-25 0.453912 1.993779 6.381693 17.653848 42.664061 91.005525 184.795373
2025-06-01 0.386122 1.826488 6.129394 17.557949 43.554669 94.757780 195.613844
2025-06-08 0.320836 1.644012 5.800377 17.232761 43.919719 97.512237 204.724191
2025-06-15 0.302425 1.633614 5.954137 18.108864 46.954666 105.600321 224.075637
2025-06-22 0.265625 1.536214 5.836158 18.283169 48.442529 110.710013 238.045173
2025-06-29 0.229884 1.429102 5.668527 18.307135 49.588560 115.191839 251.014736